Yesterday, the finance minister confirmed what we already knew – that the NPPF pension scheme is sustainable only for about 30 years. What does it mean? It means the pension scheme will not be able to pay benefits to all its pensioners in about 30 years. It means that by 2040, give or take a few years, total benefits payable to pensioners are projected to exceed total contributions of the members plus any income from its investments.
Why? There are a number of reasons. But, the main one is that our (and our employer’s) pension contributions are not “saved” for us. They do not stay in our individual account, to be invested to secure our future benefits.
Today’s contributions pay today’s pension benefits of today’s retirees. When we retire, younger ones should do the same for us … but, that’s where the problem is.
Today, the bulk of pension scheme members are young (almost 70% are below 35 years in age; more than 50% are between the age of 26 and 35). Our pension scheme currently has about 38,000 members, of who only about 1700 are the beneficiaries (1200 pensioners plus 500 surviving family beneficiaries). Many members and few beneficiaries: our pension scheme will appear to grow.
But, this is not likely to continue, because we do not expect the eligible employees (of the civil service, public corporations and armed forces) to grow in numbers. By the time this young group retires, pensioners will outnumber members by a big margin. Few members and many beneficiaries: our pension scheme will collapse.
The problem, however, is not that most of the pension scheme’s members are young. The real problem is that the way the pension benefits are defined is not sustainable. What we have is a defined-benefit plan that determines pension rates according to a formula, which is based on the salaries of its members. So, all things considered, benefits have not much to do with actual contributions, especially if the final salary is used.
What we should consider is a defined-contribution plan that will determine pension rates based on the actual contributions of individual members. And if higher pension levels are desired, members or their employers would make bigger contributions. A fully defined-contribution plan should be sustainable, simply because pensioners will get only what they and their employers set aside for retirement.
The good news is that we aren’t the only one with this problem. Many countries and companies have made exactly the same mistakes, and are now reforming. We can learn from their mistakes and successes.
The NPPF have been doing a lot of good work, especially after the Pay Commission was established. And the government’s decision to base pensions on 40% of the final salary will, no doubt, make them even more nervous. I hope the government will reconsider its decision. And I hope that the government will support the major reforms that will be needed to make our pension scheme sustainable.
And what should we do? Inform ourselves. For now, it’s important that all of us understand how our pension scheme works and what options we have. I’m learning. And, believe me, there’s a lot to learn. Wikipedia has a quick explanation on various pension plans and some international comparisons. And the NPPF website has information on our pension plan.
Postponing a problem won’t make it go away. It will only get bigger and uglier.
Pension is for our peace of mind. It gives us that precious sense of security. More security means greater happiness for us, our families and our communities. That’s got to be good for GNH. Let’s practice what we preach!
Posted by Tshering Tobgay in
Government on January 20, 2009 9:18 pm |
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