Checking ourselves

Lops didn’t like my last entry, about the poll results on our government’s performance. This is what Lops noted on Observing the state of the nation, but intended for my last entry: “Looks like OL wants everything to go the way he feels and views!!! POLL is just a poll and i don’t think anybody will take it seriously…For that matter, even earlier polls might be wrong!”

I hope that Lops is not correct about the OL wanting everything to go his way. If he is correct, then the leader of the opposition party sucks – LOPS.

But Lops is correct about our polls not being taken seriously. And, about the possibility of our earlier polls being wrong. Lops is correct, because polls on this blog inherently suffer from three biases.

The first bias is a socioeconomic bias. Very few Bhutanese have access to the internet. And, naturally, access to polls on this blog. Those who participate in online polls are relatively richer and more educated. And, their views do not necessarily reflect those of the masses. So the poll results would not be representative of the public’s real views.

The second is a statistical bias. A sample of two to three hundred people is statistically insignificant. Their views essentially amount to “noise”, and bear little indication of the views held by the general population. In fact, they bear little indication to the views of even just those with internet access.

And the third is a technological bias. One person can vote several times from different computers or, by using proxie servers, from one computer.

So why then do I conduct polls? Because, they make us think about important issues; And because they are fun.

 

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  1. Sangchen says:

    Dear Hon’ble OL,

    While I do agree on your reasoning on the ‘polls not being taken seriously’, I do not agree that online participants being ‘relatively rich’; ‘educated’ of course I agree absolutely. Rich as you mentioned here is very ambiguous & misleading. To cite an example, I consider myself well-educated but ‘rich’ …hhhmmmm doubtful! To call myself rich I may need to struggle some more before I get the laurels la. Do we have a set benchmark or standard in our country to compare rich vs. poor?

    My two cents!

    Sangchen

    • Yes. And hence the qualifier “relatively”. In Bhutan’s context, any one who is able to use a computer and access the internet is “relatively” much, much richer than the ordinary Bhutanese.

  2. These polls do serve one purpose – they give hope to OL and PDP!!! The only problem is that all the ones participating actually belong to the same group and the risk of being misinformed is omnipresent.

    • Apolo,

      The “risk” you correctly identified — a sampling bias — is important since it means the sample is not drawn randomly from the population.

      In any case, OL has already pointed out that the sample is too small to give you any indication of what the people might be thinking, with any degree of confidence!

      So, don’t waste your good time worrying about your risk. :-)

      The bottom line is, don’t get your hopes up! Better to expect the worst, be fully prepared for it, and be pleasantly surprised if things turn out differently.

      Las,

      Zekom@Gasa

  3. Good for the people of Bhutan… They voted for this government and now they get what they want. Ppl blamed on yap and Lynpo sangay lost. Yap is doing his businese as usual and Lyonpo Sangay is relaxing with his New Job, Damchen Groups…. See who is the loser… THE PEOPLE. The People does not relaise that they are being Betrayed.

  4. Who are Lops. Do you mean Lyonpo’s. Please clarify la.

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